What does the evidence say, and how much can you rely on it?
Every figure here carries its source, its date and a label for how much weight it can bear.
Evidence as of October 2026. Next review January 2027.
Who's reading?
Three ways in, depending on what you need.
Researchers
Is the method sound, and can I reuse the data or instruments?
Every figure links to its source and carries a label that says how much weight it can bear. Read how we label evidence, then check the source list on any sector page.
Five figures from the sector pages, one per sector, and three from across Africa. Each sector page carries its full set, with sources.
Official statistic2022
Health systems · Nigeria
About 76%
of health spending in Nigeria was paid by households out of pocket in 2022. Across 192 countries, the average was about 30%.
WHO Global Health Expenditure Database, via the World Bank
How we know this
Out-of-pocket payments as a share of health spending, compiled from national health accounts. The 30% comparison is the simple average across countries, not weighted by population.
Social protection, poverty and livelihoods · Nigeria
Under 4%
of poor households’ consumption was covered by safety net benefits. The base cash transfer of ₦5,000 a month was less than 11% of poor beneficiary households’ consumption.
World Bank, The State of Social Safety Nets in Nigeria, 2025
How we know this
These estimates use 2018/19 survey data and predate the recent price rises.
of children aged 5–14 cannot read and understand a simple text, about 45.8 million children. The rate ranges from 15% in Lagos to 99% in Jigawa.
World Bank, HOPE programme information document, 2025
How we know this
Among Grade 3 children, only 22.5% show Grade 2 reading skills and 21.5% show Grade 2 numeracy skills. UNICEF reports a different measure: 74% of children aged 7–14 lack basic reading and mathematics skills.
people in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe face severe to extreme humanitarian needs in 2026.
2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, as reported by OCHA and UNICEF
How we know this
The plan seeks US$516 million to reach 2.5 million of them with life-saving aid, less than half of those with severe or extreme needs. UNICEF counts 8.4 million people in need of humanitarian assistance across Nigeria.
of women were financially included in 2023, up from 60% in 2020, but the gender gap widened from 8 to 9 percentage points. About 26% of adults, 28.8 million people, remain completely excluded.
EFInA, Access to Finance Survey, 2023
How we know this
Exclusion is 38% in the north-east and 47% in the north-west, against 5% in the south-west.
projected shortage of health workers in the WHO African Region by 2030, revised down from 6.1 million. WHO calls the reduction marginal and fragile.
WHO Regional Office for Africa, May 2026
How we know this
A needs-based projection. A news report of the same WHO report adds that about 30% of trained health professionals are unemployed or underemployed, and that more than half of new graduates in several countries struggle to find work.
people were internally displaced in sub-Saharan Africa at the end of 2025, nearly 40% of the world total. It was the region's first fall in at least a decade, largely because of returns in the DRC and Sudan.
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Global Report 2026
How we know this
Conflict displaced 14.5 million people in the region in 2025, and the DRC accounted for 67% of those displacements. Sudan remained the world's largest internal displacement crisis, with 9.1 million people displaced.
Gender, youth and social inclusion · Across Africa
55%
of Africans aged 18–35 have considered emigrating, against 22% of those aged 56 and older. Emigration intent is highest among the young and the educated.
Afrobarometer, August 2026 (38 countries)
How we know this
Half of potential emigrants would go in search of work and 29% to escape economic hardship. The share who would prefer another African country fell from 36% to 26% across 31 countries.
The library will hold briefs, methods notes and datasets. It is small today, and we would rather say so than fill it.
Sector evidence pages
Live
Five pages. Each opens with a question, then figures with sources, the questions still open, and the research services that can answer them.
Open questions
Live
Every open question from the five sector pages in one list, grouped by sector, each with a “Brief this study” link.
Evidence briefs
Coming
A question as the title, a three-bullet finding, evidence cards, a method note, limitations, sources, a date stamp and a suggested citation.
Nigeria tracker
Coming
A zone map and about ten indicators, each with value, source, date and label. Updated every quarter.
Methods notes
Coming
Short notes on how we choose, label and check evidence, and how we run studies.
Data and instruments
Undecided
We haven't decided what we can share, or when. We will publish our data-sharing policy here before we release anything.
Cite and correct
Cite the original source
Every figure links to where it came from. If you reuse a figure, cite that source, not us.
To cite a page or a brief
Probatio Africa (year). Page title. Evidence as of month and year. Web address. Accessed day month year. For example: Probatio Africa (2026). Education. Evidence as of October 2026. https://probatioafrica.com/sectors/education. Accessed 7 October 2026.
Reuse
Our own text, charts and data tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). You may copy, share, translate and adapt them, including in paid work, as long as you credit Probatio Africa, link to the page and say if you changed anything. Figures from other sources keep their owners' terms.
Corrections
If you find an error, write to enquiries@probatioafrica.com. We correct errors quickly and note the correction and its date at the foot of the page.
Have a question the evidence can't answer yet?
Tell us the decision it will inform. We'll say whether a study can answer it and, if not, who is better placed to.