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Probatio Africa

Gender, youth and social inclusion

Who is being left out, and what keeps them out?

Independent research for governments, development partners and programmes in Nigeria on who is being left out, what keeps women, young people and persons with disabilities from work, services and decision-making, and whether programmes and policies change that. We draw on evidence from across Africa.

What the evidence says

Every figure carries its source, its date and a label for how much weight it can bear.

Survey estimate2023

70%

of women were financially included in 2023, up from 60% in 2020, but the gender gap widened from 8 to 9 percentage points. About 26% of adults, 28.8 million people, remain completely excluded.

EFInA, Access to Finance Survey, 2023

How we know this

Exclusion is 38% in the north-east and 47% in the north-west, against 5% in the south-west.

Survey estimate2016 data

Under 2%

of women solely own land, against 17% of men, according to one source. Estimates of women’s land ownership are very low and differ by source and year.

Landesa, 2018, citing a 2016 working paper

How we know this

In 2014 the Supreme Court held that customary rules barring women from inheriting are unconstitutional, but many women cannot benefit from such rulings because of poverty, illiteracy and limited access to justice.

Official statistic2023

Under 5%

of National Assembly seats went to women in the 2023 elections: 20 of 469, with 3 of 109 senators and 17 of 360 representatives. No woman won a seat in 15 of the 36 state assemblies.

Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre (PLAC)

How we know this

The 2025 Global Gender Gap Report ranks Nigeria 143rd of 148 economies on political empowerment. The National Gender Policy targets 35% of elective and appointive positions for women.

Official statisticQ3 2023

13.7%

of young people were not in employment, education or training in the third quarter of 2023, while headline unemployment was 5.0%.

National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria Labour Force Survey, Q3 2023

How we know this

The headline unemployment rate counts only people with no work at all who are looking for it. Where 92.3% of jobs are informal, NEET and underemployment say more about young people’s prospects.

Survey estimate2018/19

44%

of primary-age girls with disabilities were out of school in 2018/19. Unemployment among persons with disabilities is almost double that of the general population.

World Bank, HOPE programme information document, 2025; World Bank, 2020

How we know this

About 7% of household members aged five and over report some difficulty in at least one functional domain (NDHS 2018). The 2018 Disability Act sets a 5% quota for persons with disabilities in public-sector employment.

What we don't know

Questions our review of published sources found were not yet well answered.

The true level of youth unemployment and underemployment

Asked widely

Different measures give very different answers, and comparable, transparent measures are needed to judge programmes.

Whether financial inclusion changes women's lives

Asked widely

Surveys measure access and use, but effects on women's income, decision-making and wellbeing are less well documented.

How many persons with disabilities there are and what they need

Little evidence yet

Estimates range from about 12% of adults aged 15 and over to 35 million people, and needs by state and impairment type are poorly documented.

Whether the 2018 Disability Act and the 5% quota are enforced

Little evidence yet

Implementation depends on state domestication and funding, both of which look uneven.

Brief a study on one of these

Have a gender, youth or inclusion question the evidence should answer?

Tell us the decision it will inform. We will say whether the evidence can answer it and, if not, who is better placed to.