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Probatio Africa

Education

Are children learning, not only enrolled?

Independent research for governments, development partners and education programmes in Nigeria, on who is in school, what children are learning, who is teaching them, and whether the money and reforms meant to improve schools are reaching classrooms. We draw on evidence from across Africa.

What the evidence says

Every figure carries its source, its date and a label for how much weight it can bear.

Modelled or projectedPublished 2025

76%

of children aged 5–14 cannot read and understand a simple text, about 45.8 million children. The rate ranges from 15% in Lagos to 99% in Jigawa.

World Bank, HOPE programme information document, 2025

How we know this

Among Grade 3 children, only 22.5% show Grade 2 reading skills and 21.5% show Grade 2 numeracy skills. UNICEF reports a different measure: 74% of children aged 7–14 lack basic reading and mathematics skills.

Survey estimate2022 data, published 2025

50–86%

of learners did not reach the minimum proficiency level, depending on grade and subject. The highest share, 86%, was in junior secondary year 2 mathematics.

National Assessment of Learning Achievement in Basic Education (NALABE), 2022

How we know this

The assessment tested learners in primary 3, primary 5 and junior secondary 2 in mathematics, English, basic science and technology and social studies. Below the minimum proficiency level means the lower two of four performance levels. The report was published in December 2025.

Official statistic2024

194,876

teachers short in public primary schools, according to the Universal Basic Education Commission. Counting only qualified teachers, there are 98 pupils per teacher at primary level.

Universal Basic Education Commission, reported by The Guardian Nigeria; World Bank

How we know this

The overall primary pupil–teacher ratio is 49 to 1. The gap between that and 98 to 1 is the share of teachers without the required qualification.

Survey estimate2024

37%

of schools in ten states have early warning systems for school safety.

UNICEF, Minimum Standards for Safe Schools monitoring report

How we know this

Save the Children counted at least ten school kidnappings across Nigeria between January 2024 and November 2025, affecting about 670 children, based on ACLED data and media reports.

Official statistic2016–2020

38.6%

of schools submitted data to the annual school census between 2016 and 2020. The census is often published years late.

World Bank, HOPE programme information document, 2025

How we know this

Earlier rounds of the national learning assessment covered only the last years of primary and junior secondary school and did not benchmark learning against clearly defined proficiency levels.

What we don't know

Questions our review of published sources found were not yet well answered.

Who is out of school

Asked widely

Counts range from about 15 million to 19 million depending on age band and definition, and there is no agreed baseline down to state and local government level.

Learning trends

Asked widely

Comparable trend data are limited. Earlier national assessments covered only later grades and lacked clear proficiency benchmarks, and results from the national learning assessment launched in July 2026 are still to come.

Whether funds reach schools

Asked widely

The path from federal and state allocations to what schools receive and spend is poorly documented.

School safety

Little evidence yet

How insecurity affects enrolment, attendance and learning, and whether early warning and safe-school plans work, is not well measured.

Brief a study on one of these

How we can help

The research services most often used on questions in this sector. Each service page sets out the methods, the standards we follow and typical timelines.

Surveys and measurement

We count and measure. Surveys of households, facilities, schools and providers tell you how many people are affected, where they are, and how far a service reaches them.

See the service

Evaluation

We test whether something worked. An evaluation asks whether people are better off than they would have been without the programme, who gained most, and what it cost.

See the service

Monitoring and verification

We check that it arrived. Independent monitoring shows whether money, materials and services reached the people and places they were meant for, and whether reported results match what is on the ground.

See the service

Data systems and M&E

We help you trust your own data. We assess the data you already collect, design what you should measure, and train your teams to use it.

See the service

Evidence synthesis

We find out what is already known. Reviews and gap maps tell you what the evidence says, where it is thin, and what to do with it.

See the service

Have an education question the evidence should answer?

Tell us the decision it will inform. We will say whether the evidence can answer it and, if not, who is better placed to.

Brief a study