Social protection, poverty and livelihoods
Independent research for governments, development partners and programmes in Nigeria on who is poor and vulnerable, whether social assistance reaches them, what it changes in their lives, and how households build lasting livelihoods. We draw on evidence from across Africa.
Every figure carries its source, its date and a label for how much weight it can bear.
63%
of Nigerians, about 133 million people, were multidimensionally poor in 2022: 72% in rural areas and 42% in urban areas. This measures deprivation, not income.
National Bureau of Statistics, Multidimensional Poverty Index
It should not be compared directly with the World Bank’s modelled poverty estimates or with the monetary poverty line survey of 2018/19.
0.14% of GDP
was spent on social safety nets in 2021, against a global average of 1.5%. Coverage fell from about 19% of the population in 2018/19 to an estimated 6% by 2023.
World Bank, The State of Social Safety Nets in Nigeria, 2025
Coverage fell because programmes lapsed or were suspended. In 2018/19, the 19% covered included 27% of the poor.
Under 4%
of poor households’ consumption was covered by safety net benefits. The base cash transfer of ₦5,000 a month was less than 11% of poor beneficiary households’ consumption.
World Bank, The State of Social Safety Nets in Nigeria, 2025
These estimates use 2018/19 survey data and predate the recent price rises.
About 60%
was the size of official development assistance for social protection, relative to federal spending on it, in 2015–2021. The World Bank supplied over 92% of that aid.
World Bank, The State of Social Safety Nets in Nigeria, 2025
The review also reported that the Household Uplifting Programme and the national school feeding programme stopped providing benefits in 2023, and neither had resumed.
92.3%
of employment was informal in the third quarter of 2023, and 87.3% of workers were self-employed. Most livelihoods rest on informal work.
National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria Labour Force Survey, Q3 2023
The labour force survey moved to a new methodology in 2023, so these figures are not comparable with earlier rounds. Unemployment in the same quarter was 5.0%.
34.7 million
people were projected to face acute food insecurity or worse in the June–August 2026 lean season, across 27 states and the FCT. In July 2026, WFP put the national figure at 36.2 million.
Cadre Harmonisé; WFP
In three north-eastern states, 6.2 million people are food insecure, and WFP said it could support 740,000 of them.
Questions our review of published sources found were not yet well answered.
Registered, validated and paid
Asked widelyPublic data do not yet show how many households on the register have been validated and paid, which makes it hard to say how many eligible households remain outside the system.
Poverty since 2019
Asked widelyThe World Bank's 2025 review relied on 2018/19 survey data because a 2023 living standards survey had not yet been released, and recent poverty figures are modelled estimates that the government has contested.
What works for livelihoods at scale
Little evidence yetGraduation-style programmes perform well elsewhere, but Nigeria's own livelihood components were piloted and not scaled, so evidence on cost, delivery and results at scale in Nigeria is thin.
How well grievance systems work
Little evidence yetBeneficiary accounts describe weak grievance mechanisms, but systematic evidence on complaints handled and resolved is lacking.
The research services most often used on questions in this sector. Each service page sets out the methods, the standards we follow and typical timelines.
We count and measure. Surveys of households, facilities, schools and providers tell you how many people are affected, where they are, and how far a service reaches them.
See the serviceWe check that it arrived. Independent monitoring shows whether money, materials and services reached the people and places they were meant for, and whether reported results match what is on the ground.
See the serviceWe test whether something worked. An evaluation asks whether people are better off than they would have been without the programme, who gained most, and what it cost.
See the serviceWe follow the money and cost the options. Budget analysis and costing show what something takes to run at scale, who benefits, and what happens when outside funding ends.
See the serviceWe help you trust your own data. We assess the data you already collect, design what you should measure, and train your teams to use it.
See the serviceCompleted projects of ours that bear on this sector.
Bauchi State Ministry of Budget and Planning
Real example44 Bauchi State officials. Implementation of the Bauchi State Social Protection Policy; training held in Jos, Plateau State, in 2023.
Adebayo Adeleke LLC
Real example195 respondents (98 farmers, 95 suppliers/retailers). Seven states: Benue, Kano, Borno, Oyo, Edo, Lagos and Abuja (FCT).
Adebayo Adeleke LLC
Real example84 in-depth interviews and 315 structured surveys. Seven states and the FCT: Lagos, Kano, Borno, Akwa Ibom, Benue, Edo, Anambra and Abuja.
Tell us the decision it will inform. We will say whether the evidence can answer it and, if not, who is better placed to.