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Probatio Africa

Humanitarian, peace and stability

Are people getting help, and are returns safe and voluntary?

Independent research for governments, development partners and humanitarian and peacebuilding organisations on who is in need, whether assistance reaches them safely, what drives violence and displacement, and what helps communities recover and live in peace. We work in Nigeria and draw on evidence from across Africa.

What the evidence says

Every figure carries its source, its date and a label for how much weight it can bear.

Official statistic2026

5.9 million

people in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe face severe to extreme humanitarian needs in 2026.

2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, as reported by OCHA and UNICEF

How we know this

The plan seeks US$516 million to reach 2.5 million of them with life-saving aid, less than half of those with severe or extreme needs. UNICEF counts 8.4 million people in need of humanitarian assistance across Nigeria.

Official statisticFebruary 2026

72,000

people were all WFP said it could reach in Nigeria in February 2026, against 1.3 million assisted at the height of the 2025 lean season.

WFP

How we know this

WFP linked the cut to shrinking humanitarian funding. By July 2026 it said it could support 740,000 of the 6.2 million food-insecure people in three north-eastern states.

Survey estimateOctober–December 2025

2.29 million

people were internally displaced in the north-east, most by the insurgency. Another 1,378,124 were displaced in ten north-central and north-western states, 81% of them living in host communities.

UNHCR; IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix

How we know this

The north-east figure is from UNHCR’s forcibly displaced populations dashboard of 1 December 2025; the north-central and north-west figure is from IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix, Round 18 (October 2025). They cover different states and dates, so they should not be added together.

Modelled or projectedJuly 2026

36.2 million

people were food insecure nationally, WFP said in July 2026. About 3 million children are expected to suffer severe wasting in 2026.

WFP; UNICEF, 2026 appeal

How we know this

Hunger and malnutrition compound the crisis in the north-east, where needs already exceed the funding available.

What we don't know

Questions our review of published sources found were not yet well answered.

Who is out of reach

Little evidence yet

How many people live in areas humanitarians cannot access, and what they need, is poorly known.

What the funding cuts are doing

Little evidence yet

Reduced pipelines and coverage are reported, but which cuts had which effects on malnutrition, health and protection in Nigeria has not been systematically measured.

Whether peacebuilding works

Asked widely

Impact evidence is concentrated in a few intervention types, and there is no agreed set of standards for peacebuilding research. Independent evaluations of community peace structures and early warning systems in Nigeria are hard to find.

Who actually receives funding

Asked widely

The share of humanitarian money that reaches local and national actors through intermediaries cannot currently be traced.

Brief a study on one of these

How we can help

The research services most often used on questions in this sector. Each service page sets out the methods, the standards we follow and typical timelines.

Monitoring and verification

We check that it arrived. Independent monitoring shows whether money, materials and services reached the people and places they were meant for, and whether reported results match what is on the ground.

See the service

Surveys and measurement

We count and measure. Surveys of households, facilities, schools and providers tell you how many people are affected, where they are, and how far a service reaches them.

See the service

Qualitative research

We find out why. Interviews, group discussions and community sessions explain what the numbers can’t: why people stay away, how decisions get made, and what a programme felt like to the people it was for.

See the service

Evaluation

We test whether something worked. An evaluation asks whether people are better off than they would have been without the programme, who gained most, and what it cost.

See the service

Policy and systems analysis

We look at why a sound policy isn’t working. We map who decides, who has to act, and where things stall between federal, state and local levels.

See the service

From our own work

Completed projects of ours that bear on this sector.

The same cross-border energy infrastructure operator

Real example

What traditional rulers and community leaders said, in their own words

12 traditional rulers and 12 focus group discussions. Communities along the right-of-way in Lagos and Ogun States.

Read the case study

Have a humanitarian, peace or stability question the evidence should answer?

Tell us the decision it will inform. We will say whether the evidence can answer it and, if not, who is better placed to.

Brief a study